Industry “Exports will Improve from Next Year”
- 1Q Export Business Survey Index is 102.2 … expects to see export recovery in semiconductors, ships, etc. -
is expected that the downward trend in exports this year will improve in the
first quarter of next year.
to a report titled “Export Industry Outlook for The
First Quarter of 2020’, which is the result of the survey of 984 Korean
exporters, issued by the Institute for International Trade (President: Shin
Seung-kwan) of the Korea International Trade Association, the Export Business
Survey Index (EBSI) for the first quarter of next year is 102.2, exceeding 100
in five quarters since the fourth quarter of 2018.
the index exceeds 100, it indicates that export conditions will be better than
product, exports of ships, semiconductors, and household goods are expected to improve.
While semiconductors’ unit prices are expected to go up, the exports will
increase on the back of the expansion of the 5G mobile communications market
and the recovery in demand for data center investments by major IT companies.
In terms of ships, the index improved significantly from 94.9 in the fourth
quarter to 149.4 as the exports of ships are also expected to rise with the
increased export volume to India for the first quarter of next year.
contrast, the exports of chemical industry, machinery, and steel sectors are
expected to remain sluggish. The exports of chemical industry products are
expected to decline due to falling oil prices and sluggish demand in China. The
condition for machinery exports are expected to deteriorate due to economic
slowdown in major export destinations such as China and Vietnam. Also, stagnant
global demand and expanded production of major countries will worsen the export
environment for steel and non-ferrous metal products.
item, slight improvement of ‘export consultation’ (105.1) and ‘export contract’
(102.3) compared to the fourth quarter see robust export volume. However, the
report expected that ‘manufacturing cost of export goods’ (85.9), ‘economy of
export destination' (87.4), 'exporters’ profitability' (89.3), etc. would
continue to undergo negative conditions due to delays in the global economic
recovery, buyer’s request for price cut, and rising prices of raw materials.
exporters selected 'buyer’s request for price cut’ (15.5%), 'rising prices of
raw materials' (15.3%) and 'slowing economy of export destination' (13.3%) as
major export difficulties in the first quarter of next year.
Seo-kyung, a researcher at the Institute for International Trade of the Korea
International Trade Association, said, “The index has
surpassed 100 in five quarters since the fourth quarter of 2018 and it is a
sign of export recovery” and added, “However, as external risks such as US-China trade conflicts still
remain, continuous monitoring and responding are required.”
< The Export Business Survey Index